Uncertainty and Ambivalence

or, a particular worldview

In many walks of life, expressions of uncertainty are mistaken for admissions of weakness.

~ Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t

I just finished Silver’s book, which I loved, and I’d planned on writing about the whole book but then he dropped this fucking zinger at the end and I’m like “yeah, okay, I guess I have to write about this first.”

Uncertainty and ambivalence. The very name of this publication. For me, and hopefully for Squirt, this is a fundamental way of viewing the world. Implicit in every argument, consideration, decision, and position I have is one looming thought: I could be wrong.

I am certain that certainty is for fools.

I am certain that certainty is for the lazy and the ignorant.

I am certain that uncertainty is the only rational way to approach life.

But, hey, I could be wrong…

The frustrating thing in dealing with me, and especially living in my own ambivalent head, is that I am always worrying that I could be wrong so I am highly motivated to be as least wrong as is possible. My brain is like a child sitting down with a Gordian knot constantly worrying with it. Twisting it, turning it, poking it and prodding it and looking for the weak spots. Where is the thread to pull on? What is the next step to unravel it just a little more.

curious child with gordian knot in their lap

But Why?

For me, this manifests as a frustrating level of argumentativeness and tendency to debate everything. Why do you think that? What makes you so certain? What about this aspect? What about this totally tangential thing?

Indeed, Squirt has the same tendencies. It was important to me as a father to never answer one of his questions with “because I said so.” I’ve never really believed in some borrowed authority simply because I contributed genetic material or changed his diapers. I wanted to earn that authority by being able to answer his questions. By sitting down in the dirt next to him and poking and prodding his own personal mental knots. My authority was derived from having seen particular tangles before and teaching him how to untangle them. Or letting him struggle. Nowadays I meet most of his endless inquisitiveness with “well, what do you think the answer is?”

But it always comes back to an imperfect understanding of the thing in front of us. Eventually the answer must invariably be: I don’t know. I am uncertain.

When did this become weakness? Why is this weakness?

Unsurprisingly, I am not sure. But I think it’s a major problem.

Authority

Life is about endless choices. Knowing you made the right choice is almost impossible if you’re uncertain and ambivalent. The only real solution I’ve found is to muddle over things obsessively. To write them out. To argue with others about them. To read competing narratives about them. Frequently I will think probabilistically like Silver talks about in his book. None of these results in being right necessarily but it does result in feeling strongly about my opinions, because they are supported. And it does result in feeling like I am less wrong than I would be if I had simply chosen a path without introspection.

Or had a path chosen for me.

The complexities of the world are peeled back more every year. There is far more noise than ever before. You can find almost any position on almost any particular choice with a couple clicks of your keyboard. You can find validation for anything. This is am amazing, and terrifying, thing. I think it also leaves everyone completely adrift.

In a world of competing narratives how do you choose the story to believe?

Most people just pick whichever comes easiest and seeps into their mind from their environment. Politics is the easiest lens, of course. Blue states and red states. Not knowing what you think about something until your chosen tribe has coalesced on their narrative. And ignoring anything from the other side. And the algorithm of social media plays exactly that game (see Nexus by Yuval Noah Harari for a favorite framing of this).

The easiest and most common heuristic is to farm your beliefs and decisions out to an authority. A tribe. A church. A friend. A hero. The second most common heuristic is to just believe the opposite of what the Other thinks. You don’t have to be certain - you just need to pick who to agree with and who to disagree. Simple, straightforward, no-muss-no-fuss.

Fucking weak.

Arrogance

Thus appears, finally, one of the most accurate and simultaneously confusing criticisms I receive from friends and family and strangers. I am ambivalent and uncertain and yet strong in my convictions and perfectly willing to criticize the world from a position of perceived authority.

It is almost impossible to differentiate someone telling you that “your stance is wrong” from someone telling you that “your stance is fucking weak.” But they are different things.

To label an opinion wrong is to be certain. You stand there knowing you are undoubtedly correct and you oppose the opinion. I am rarely willing to say someone is flatly wrong because certainty is virtually impossible.

To label an opinion weak. Well. This is just good sense in dealing with most folks. Because most folks haven’t thought deeply about their positions on anything. And most folks are unwilling to admit that there are flaws or facets in their crystallized beliefs.

And thus working towards least wrong is easy to confuse with arrogance and certainty. Because most people haven’t put any work into their beliefs at all. They were fed them by their parents or their tribe or the algorithm. I reject this.

The first step to solving a problem is admitting it is there. Admitting uncertainty is admitting the problem. Becoming comfortable that there aren’t perfect answers, and that you could be wrong, that is strength. Being willing to be wrong is strength. Working towards being the least wrong you can be is strength.

But what do I know, I’m just some ambivalent asshole.

In all affairs it’s a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted.

~ Bertrand Russell

Squirt Says…

The act of uncertainty is the act of brilliance. Thinking you are certain is always impossible. The very existence of the universe could simply disappear. There is always a chance. Of course I could be wrong.

Dad Responds…

LOL. Smartass.