A Dilemma
or, stupid idealism and stupid rationality with Anthropic
I think the world would be a better place if it were filled with idealistic individuals. I also think the world would be a better place if it were filled with rational individuals.
Unfortunately, the world is filled with neither of these things. Humans are short-sighted, greedy, irrational, and stupid. We are still cavemen. We are animals. We are perfectly happy to make deals with the devil. We just like to pretend none of these things are true. Enter game theory and politics.
Game theory chooses to focus on the rational actor. The word “rational” shows up thirty-nine times in that Wikipedia article. Politics, on the other hand, chooses to focus on idealism and morals. The word “rational” only showed up four times in that Wikipedia article which I found very funny — it’s worth searching for it to see how it shows up too.
There is however a concept that ties them both together very tightly, a concept that every human has deep down inside them: self-interest. That is to say, whether you’re talking game theory, politics, or just general humanity we are all out for ourselves first.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma
Enter my favorite game theory example — The Prisoner’s Dilemma. A quick refresher on the dilemma: Two rational actors can cooperate and get the best result. They can both defect and get the worst result. Or one can cooperate and one can defect and the one that cooperates gets fucked over. I’ll steal the picture from Wikipedia:
Moral? If we would all just cooperate everything would be sunshine and rainbows.
Reality? We’re gonna screw the guy. Officer, let me tell you exactly how it’s all the other guy’s fault.
Except, of course, when we do not screw the other guy over even though it makes sense to do so. Even when it might cost us something. There are all sorts of examples where we don’t act in our own self-interest. Everything from having kids to returning someone’s wallet to diving on a grenade.
We do not live in a fully rational world, and we do not live in a fully self-interested world. Idealism and altruism can, and do, win the day sometimes. But they are the exceptions. There is a churn between these things which leads me to…
Anthropic
Finally, the fucking point. Yesterday Anthropic dropped the latest salvo in their fight with the Department of Defense. Oh, wait, I meant the Department of “War” because we live in a kakistocracy. And the through-line of their piece is rank idealism. “We are keeping these things from the government because they are a danger to democracy.” And I see their point. They have created something powerful and they want to take it in a direction different from those that are using it.
They are mistaken in thinking that they have this agency. They are mistaken that these things are not already on their way. I continue to come back over and over again to the Manhattan Project. I was reminded of my review of Oppenheimer. Anthropic has tricked themselves into thinking the same thing — that they have some control over the djinn that they’ve let out of the bottle. Oppenheimer was first to the bomb but it was out of his hands immediately. Anthropic is first to these AI things but they still think they have control.
They do not. They are holding back a tide and there are only two outcomes. They will capitulate entirely, or they will see themselves fade away as more self-interested, and less idealistic, companies climb right over the still-cooling corpse of Anthropic as they die clutching their ideals.
A democratic country reflects the will of its people and the American people have chosen what they perceive as the best self-interested choice for them. They’ve installed a government that is perfectly fine with threatening corporations like an organized crime thug. The country is not interested in holding the Department of Defense back and since there is no impetus to hold back it will not. Eventually the shareholders will capitulate because that’s what you do when the government flexes its force if you want to stay in business. And Anthropic wants to stay in business.
It Matters
I’m thrilled to see this pushback. I’m thrilled to see the idealism, even if I think it is doomed to fail. One of the most important aspects of the Prisoner’s Dilemma is the prisoners cannot communicate with each other. Because if they could talk then they would reach an accord. In this particular case I appreciate seeing that conversation, even if it’s growing a little heated and there is no question in my mind who has all the leverage. The most powerful aspect of freedom of speech is that it spreads knowledge. And that’s what’s happening here. It’s the heart of what “solves” the prisoner’s dilemma as well.
So the stand that Anthropic is taking matters. These are questions that I think everyone in America should at least be somewhat aware of. Because we are living through a revolution that will be as impactful as the Industrial Revolution. It will be a fundamental shift of the firmament that human civilization stands upon. And it’s going to change the face of war and conflict and privacy. Communicating about these concerns and paying attention to them matters.
But I think it’s important to understand that this is happening. It’s not a question of whether it will happen, it’s a question of when it will happen and who will benefit from it. In the end, Anthropic’s shareholders will recognize that and they will want to benefit. Self-interest again.
And that’s okay. We’re doing okay as a species while self-interest drives us and idealism just occasionally gets its own nudge in. I’ll take the solution where we all get a little bit rather than any one group getting all of it and be happy with progress of any type.
